Afghanistan- Is New war is awaiting

"Only the dead has seen the end of the war," Pluto said thousand years ago. There were hundreds and thousands of wars fought since the human first started using stones as a tool of offence and defence, but ultimately ended. The longest war in the history fought by Vietnam war of independence against Chinese ran for 1048 years started from 111BC and ultimately ended in 938 AD after the fall of Chinese Ming dynasty. millions died but the war of independence didn't halt. The ancient Chinese military is considered to be elite and against which a small country fought such a long war is unparallel till the start of the current century when modern superpower chooses the wrong front to fight without knowing the result may be unthinkable for everyone. This was is the largest war of the modern era. This is the Afghan war between Taliban and US & allies. 

Afghan Taliban (Credit - NBC News)

The war was the result of the terror attack in Newyork on 9/11 which destroyed Twin Towers and hundred of American died. As a result of the Al-Qaida, was accused and American asked Alqaida head Osama Bin Ladin (presumably killed in Abbottabad operation by US Seals). Taliban's Head Mullah Muhammad Umer asked for proves and offer the legal proceeding against Osama Bin Ladin can be started in Afghanistan and handover to American if found guilty. American gave no proofs and threaten to attack if the Taliban did not obey them. Mullah Muhammad Umer refused to hand over as OBL was his guest in Afghanistan without concrete proofs. American, after the acceptance of  US resolutions in the UN.

Osama Bin Laden during interview in 1996 (Credit - time Magazine)

 The war started by American on 7th Oct 2001 and still going on. My blog is not to discuss what happened afterwards but the backdrop is necessary to understand the result of the war which has no end. More the 19 years and trillion of Dollar burnt in training Afghan National Arm forces and Afghan Governments, the participants are standing pre- Oct-2001. Taliban regain control of more than 70% of the country. American backed National Government controls 30% which is diminishing fastly and reports suggest that the Taliban can seize Capital city Kabul whenever they wish. 

US Marines during urban of Kabul (Credit- military times)

This war bleeds USA & Allies to the extend that America forced to offer peace talks to the Taliban since 2011 in the Obama Administration after the security transition to Afghan National Army.  The talks were going on in the background through Pakistan even the intense fighting was going between Taliban and US. During Trump Administration, the talks were gone in advance level and many sanctions were lifted on the Taliban and their political office were opened in Doha, Qatar to facilitate peace talks. 

Talk and fight went side by side until the US-Taliban Peace Deal strike on Feb-2020. According to that, the prisoners of both parties will be freed in 1.5 years. Foreign forces will leave the country, Afghan National Government, Taliban and other groups will sit and made collation government.     

Taliban Delegation in Doha, Qatar (Credit- Aljzeera)

Although the Trump Administration has signed in the last year of the term and majority of US troop left Afghanistan however, due to defeat of the Trump and Biden administration is in place, can the Peace Deal continue?  

The answer is difficult as Biden administration doesn't want to leave Afghanistan to China nor cut the peace deal to sustain more loss of money and souls. Biden may compel to continue the Trump policy therefore the only member of the Trump Administration that retain is Zalmay Khalilzad, US representative to Afghanistan who is centre in this peace deal negotiation.   

American establishment has second thought to deal with Taliban through ISIS type organisations. The US and ISIS connection are open secrete now. Together with security contractors,  they can replace US troops. ISIS along with Tehrek -e- Taliban Pakistan and other hardliners join hands to fight with the Taliban. Lashkergah is said to be centre for TTP and ISIS where Taliban has been engaged many times.  Taliban has accused the US Government to cease help to ISIS and TTP through Afghan intelligence. Taliban knew all and has engaged these organisations with freehand after peace deals the US and Taliban have been banned to be engaged. 

The Moral of the Afghanistan National Army &Airforce is going down day by day. The trained personals along with there weapons are defecting to the Taliban is increasing. America also not tuned the Afghan Army properly. They have few tanks with no Artillery guns and few MBRLS. The airforce has few Counterintergency aircraft with little trained pilots and airmen. 

The Taliban is now controlling main highways leading to the Capital. Taliban is controlling 70% of the country. fights are going on in some districts. Government is losing the grip day by days. The negotiations between the Government and the Taliban is on hold in Afghanistan. 

The Chinese factor can not be subsided as most of the projects owned by Chinese companies. Trump want to get out because He thought why the US provide security to the Chinese companies on US taxpayer's money? However, the US establishment is not willing to provide space to China in Afghanistan. China has also included Afghanistan in One Belt One Road project and willing to give access to Gawadar which made transit route shorter. China is mining rare earth metals, iron and other important minerals in Afghanistan. 

India was also wanted to be a member of the Peace process, however, due to Pakistani pressure, India was kicked out from the process. India had invested more than 3 billion USD and given weapons and equipment free of cost. India has also close relation wit Afghan intelligence agencies and manages terrorist outfits to operate in Pakistani's Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Indian RAW invested heavily in terror outfit and recently unit ISIS, TTP, BLA, BLF to work together. many attacks had been done by these outfits. Pakistani ISI knows and working accordingly. 

The supply line of the Allied forces run through Pakistan. when the war started in 2001, Pakistan was not strong enough to resist and therefore accept a demand for given bases and supply line to the USA. The number of the drone operations were done from Pakistan in the Northern Area and Afghanistan was conducted. However, now America may not go for a new war. Pakistan is also strong enough after two decades to force Biden to honour the Peace Deal. Pakistan is the pivot of the Afghan peace and prosperity. If the USA wants to get out of the mess, Pakistan is the only country who can help him out. CPEC is the main part of the Chinese One Belt and One Road initiative, which run through Gawadar, Balochistan. It can change the whole trade perspective of the world. Taliban has already agreed with Pakistan to join the CPEC. China also agreed to invest in the condition that the Taliban will restore peace in Afghanistan. 

In my opinion, the new war is inching closer as ISIS and other outfits are going to disrupt peace in the region. New Civil war can be seen on the horizon after US departure. ISIS are active in all Afghanistan and neighbour countries and involved in a various bomb blast and gun attack in public places. Biden needs to give respect Taliban otherwise America will need another decade and prepare themselves to welcome more dead bodies at home. Because security contractors are not able to win over the Taliban if US Armed forces and National Afghan Armed Forces are not able to win in 19 years.