LADAKH is a disputed area covering 59,146 sqKm, bordered by the Chinese Tibet Autonomous region from the east and Kashmir and Gilgit & Baltistan and Jammu & Kashmir to the west. It is the doorway to the Karakoram range where China and Pakistan meet at the Khjrab corridor. The total population of the Ladakh is 274,289 person and the Muslim are in majority with 46%and Buddist are living here at 46% and 40% respectively. The area is mountainous, treachery becomes one of the coldest places on earth with -40 degree in December. The area also has the highest battleground called Siachen where are Batallion strength of Pakistan and Indian guard there post.
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| The Rock of Peace (Credit- Global Village Space) |
THE CONFLICT
The Conflict is not as old as Kashmir but old enough to complete 50 years. India and China had first fought on Ladakh in 1962 when Aksai Chin was captured by the Chinese Army. since then several standoffs have taken between two countries on small levels. China's description of his western border which includes Ladakh, Uttrakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Arunachal and Seriguri as its territory which India claim that All of these areas inclusive of Aksai Chin own by them. Both country's soldiers transgressed into an undefined border known as Line of Actual Control in an agreement between China and India in 1993. One of the important point in this agreement is that both countries can not fire on each other and remain unarmed during petrol. The conflict intensified after the Indian Government, after adopting a resolution to make Jammu & Kashmir as State and Ladakh as Union Territory in August 2019.
Recent Standoff
The recent standoff started on the 5th of May-2020 when China started occupying Galwan valley, Pangong Tso lake area's Figures, Gogra Petroling points later dep-song valley. China accused India of the illegal construction of Raod in the Galwan valley which probably leads to the Karakoram. Chinese troops start to open multiple fronts and brought in heavy equipment like light and medium tanks, SPA and Artillery guns. With lighting speed, China reinforces its Airpower with additional fighters, bombers. UAVs, and support aircraft. Pakistani Skurdu Base is allegedly under Chinese command which is not confirmed by Pakistan. However, Pakistani fighters are stationed at Skardu airbase. China has moved with full preparation and troops was acclimatized already in the Tibet region after the Duklam standoff in 2016. One of the Indian veteran Ajay Shukla claimed that India has lost more than 14300 sq Km of the area to China.
Indian Reaction
Indian reaction to the Chinese offensive was astonished. On the one hand, the Indian Army was deploying troops on Ladakh whereas the Government continuously denying any transgression by China called it a routine matter due to non-demarcation of the border. Indian aggressively buildup its only airstrip at Daulat Baig Oldie Airstrip at Depsong valley and able to land C-17 heavy lift, Mig 29 and Su-30. Both countries had a skirmished on 15/16 June-2020 in which 20 Indian soldiers died. Recently china released the video of the clash and claimed that 4 Chinese soldiers lost their lives on that day.
Winter war
Both forces beef up their preparation for the winter front. The weather of the Himalayan region are savage and -50 degree with winds more 150 km/h. China has tested all its equipment developed for winter fights including suites and tents. Fresh foods deliveries are made through Carriage drones daily and Chinese soldiers enjoying hot meals in the war zone. Chinese Eastern Theather Command conducts the various type of war training in the region testing newly developed tanks, rockets, guided munitions in frozen season. The Chinese soldiers have been geared up with Exoskeletons for their patrolling and supply parties which help soldiers in scaling mountains with more than 40 KG baggage on the back without any fatigue. On the other hand, India is purchasing snow suites, tents and gears from aboard and soldiers are suffering from climate and the number of troops deterioration is at an increasing rate. Indian is forced to redeploy new troops to match the Chinese number.
The military is not a solution but a tool for the solution
For many countries, the military is the tool to solve the conflict but even after the war and loss of hundred of life, the final decision is made on the table. Many countries lost the war on the table. The Ladakh conflict is not exceptional. Eleven round of talks has been done and now de-escalation agreement has been signed between both militaries to establish a 10 Km buffer zone on Pangong Tso finger areas. The Chinese and Indian forces are moving back to their agreed positions. Indian also agreed to leave Kailash valley hights which is the only trump cardo for India in the whole conflict. The way the agreement has done shows the Indian eagerness to end the war as soon as possible. The Gogra, Galwan valley and Dep-song Plains are still under Chinese threat and talks are going on at this time of writing the blog.
The Conflict to end the Conflict
So, here is the question remained why the Chinese initiated aggressive transgression in May-2020 during Covid outspread. The answer is simple. To end the conflict which was about to begin. If the readers remember that after the revocation of Article 370 and 35A regarding the Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh region, Indian Defence Minister Raj Nath said that now we will talk about Azad Kashmir, Gilgit & Baltistan, not for J&K. After befitted reply from Pakistan on Feb-2019, India along with Isreal and America Planed two things. Land Offensive on Gilgit Baltistan and America base on Ladakh to lookover China. The terrain of Ladakh is very difficult and need extensive manpower and finance for all-weather roads till the Karakoram, the only way to be the legitimate neighbour of Afghanistan and kill the CPEC because the road opened from Gilgit Baltistan.
Future of Ladakh Crises
Well, in my opinion, if there is any settlement happened china has its military bases near to Tibet Borders and around 250,000 soldiers has been acclimatized to deal with Indian issue. Pakistan and China coordination and interoperability have been increased many folds which may result in the two fronts war. They had tried to engage the Chinese in the South China Sea along with QUAD, however, the Chinese successfully neutralized QUAD through Trade. Agreement. The main difference between Pakistan, China and India and QUAD is that Pakistan and China are cemented with economic and military close coordination and development. Pakistan has Transfer Technology and developed weapons within the country whereas India used to import most of the weapons from abroad or Semi Knockdown Kits. They have to pour more money into defence then Pakistan.
De-escalation ore Rearrangement
The de-escalation from Pangong Tso Lake is just candy India. China may not further De-escalate from Galwan and Dep-song plains until India accept the revival of stricken Articles for Jammu & Kashmir and Laddakh. Don't forget that the Chinese claim on Indian soil is more then India can imagine. Chinese manoeuvres and power show is taken by surprise by the world as Normally China doesn't go offensive since its independence. In my opinion, there will be a rearrangement of troops at other sanctions like Arunachal, Uttrakhand and Srigori corridor to bleed further Indian Economy till 2023 till major projects of CPEC is completed and most of the countries like Iran, Afghanistan, China and Central Asian countries join with rail, road and sea routes. Indian deem as the major military power in South Asia that can match China in numbers, however, not in Technology. The recent report of the Pentagon says that China is way ahead in Navy, Anti Air and space technologies from America. The Indian need to recorrect itself in selecting a friend or Foe. living in between two nuclear neighbours, Modi needs to rethink the strategy of being a policeman of the region but give friendly important because friends can be changed, the neighbour can not change.
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