Two eternal enemies had stunned the world with the Joint Press Release in which both agreed to cool down the hottest line in the world. That Line is known to the World as the Line of Control (LOC). This Line is more than 740 Km long fenced that divide Kashmir valley into Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK)- Azad Kashmir and Indian occupied Kashmir (IOK)- Maqbuza Kashmir as Pakistani knows it. The terrain is difficult and zigzag where the line goes over the tops to spurs This conflict is one of the oldest conflicts of the world and the line was created after the first war of Kashmir in 1948 in which Gilgit Baltistan and 1/3 of Kashmir became POK & GB. Since then three wars have been fought between both countries. Skirmishes are a normal routine on LOC. All type of weapons used or tried on this Line which includes Artillery, mortar to 9mm bullets.
 |
| Section of Pakistan Army on LOC (Credit- The DAWN) |
Joint Press Release
The Joint Press release was issued by the Director-General Operations of Pakistan Army and Indian Army and announced an unconditional ceasefire in all sectors of LOC and Working boundary immediately effect from midnight 25/26 Feb-2021 and observe the true sprite of Truce agreement of 2003 between both countries. This end two years of heavy violations across the border which was started in Feb 2019 after Pulwama. Before that, the low number of violation recorded however it was increased much folds in the last two years.
Pulwama
In Feb-2019, Around 400KG RDX explosive was packed in the car, hit the Central Police Reserve Force convey in Pulwama. This suicide attack resulted in 40 Indian soldiers dead, rocked the world and especially India. There was General Elections in India in April-2019. One point must not forget that Indian elections never complete without Pakistan. So there is a possibility that the Indian Party in Government (BJP) were losing the election on performance, therefore, they need some patriotism was needed to show that Modi Government can give Pakistan, a bloody punch but to do that reason should be there so that sympathy of the world can also achieve and bulti political pressure on the newly untested Government. Soon after the attack, Narendra Modi accused Pakistan everywhere and wow to take revenge from Pakistan.
Operation Bandar
On the night of 25th/26th of Feb,2019, Indian fighter planes which includes SU-30MKI and Mirage 2000 entered Pakistan aerospace and remained in for two minutes as they got the news that Pakistan's F-16 will soon get them. They dump their weapons and fuel tanks and leave the area in hurry. In my opinion, Pakistan led them to go safely to IOK because Pakistan was also eager to show some muscles and give the befitted reply. Earlier to this transgression by IAF, three different decoy incursions were done to tackle PAF Combat Air Petrols (CAP). This gave Indian fighters 4 minutes window to dump the weapons and fuel tanks and runaway. The result was a few trees and crow casualties.
Operation Swift Retort
In response, Pakistan awaited for 26th Feb-2019 for a hammered out plan to surprise India. Although the land battle started in the morning, PAF reply was still to come. The PAF Mirages, JF-17 and F-16s started rolling suddenly at 9 AM. Armed with standoff leaser guided weapons, the 4 Mirages, 4 JF-17 and a few F-16 for air cover was a takeoff from a different basis. At the time of the strike, the IAF AWACS was changing the post. Israeli Phalcan was going down and Indian made Netra was taken its place. The PAF strike at the same time and lock the targets and redesignate the weapons on close open ground, as ordered. In response to this, India tried to bull Pakistan however, Pakistan gave surprise and shoot down 2 SU-30 and a MIG-21 in week's long war. One pilot was capture, which was returned later. On land, more than 500 Indian soldiers were killed against a few Pakistani Martyrdom. even Indian tried nuclear push to Pakistan's 3 cities while Pakistan had locked 9 Indian targets and gave massage to Indian, we are ready. The Massage was given through an unknown allied country.
And the Story begins
After Operation Swift, the violation of LOC continues. Shelling and firing become routine. India especially fired shells on Schools and homes. These violations increased day by day. In August 2019, Article 370 and 35 A had removed and made Janu and Kashmir as State and Ladakh as Union Territory and imposed curfew in the valley. The violation across the valley heighten up and the force numbers were increased to 900000 deployed in Kashmir. Kashmiri in IOK started a new wave of demonstrations which was brutally handed by armed forces.
Chinese Incursion in 2020
After changing the status of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, The Chinese and Pakistani reactions were furious on the diplomatic ground and both countries raised the Kashmir issues in The UN and other forums. The Indian response was that it is our internal matter so Pakistan and China have no right to speak in. China and Pakistan are in close negotiation for suitable action. The Indians were started talking about attacking GB and POK and tension were gone on a new level. In May-2020, The Chinese step in from the Laddakh area and occupied vital points of the Galwan Valley. China accused India of the illegal construction of the Road in Galwan valley. This road said to give an approach to the Indian Army near Karakoram Highway. This could be fatal for CPEC because that only land link between Pakistan and China and without it, Belt and Road Project dies. Therefore Chinese Army, in stun move, occupied part of Galwan Valley and opened new fronts on Dapsong, Pangong Tso Lake and others. Indian Army forced to relocated Armed forces from Kashmir valley to Laddakh valley. Chinese buildup was swift in construction and deployment as compared to India. Now India actually facing a two-front war on LOC and LAC. During this buildup and standoff which his still going on the number of rounds of the meeting between Military commanders of both countries was held without any conclusion. China, day by day started additional deploying of troops and heavy equipment on multiple fronts. Indian only strategy seems to be eye to eye deployment in term of manpower and equipment. In between the May-2020 to Feb-2021
Disengagement and de-escalation on Pangsong Tso Lake and Joint press release of DG(MO) of Pakistan and India
After the 11th round of talks on 21-02-2021, the agreement signed between India and China to ease the standoff on Pangong Tso and 10Km buffer zone is created between both forces. The most strange truth of this agreement is that it is only for Pangong Tso Lake. there is nothing regarding Ghagra, Depsong and Galwan valley. These fronts are not even in the list of talk and there is no clue when it will be discussed. But there is one more development that shocked the world. The De-escalation agreement on LAC gave birth to Ceasefire in LOC. These both agreements are definitely linked with each other because the announcement of the ceasefire came after two days from Sino Indian agreement. The Pangsong Tso area is not strategically important and thus China felt no problem to disengage from this front. However, the Galwan, Gogra and Depsong regions are more important to China and Pakistan because they hold more important Daulat Beg Oldie Airport is the most important location for supplies for India, situated in Depsong Valley. China has occupied hights and Y junction which almost block the Airfield. The route to Gilgit Baltistan is almost close. But there may be a second reason which may force India for the settlement, although not permanently, American Pressure
New American Regime Pressure
One of the most possible clues for the Ceasefire can be the new American Regime Pressure to bring some stability to Afghanistan. Pakistan is the pivot between Taliban and US agreement and without Pakistan, no supplies are possible to landlocked Afghanistan. There is a thought Biden Administration that Kashmir Problem must be resolve before Afghanistan otherwise, Kashmir will become the new heaven for Terrorist. One of the reasons for this speculation is that Biden keep the hardline on India over human rights violation and the trust-building measures are now taking by Indian Government with the opening of 4G in the Valley.
Indian Military Situation
One of the most important factors that contributed to the ceasefire is the scarcity of modern weapons and ammunition. As per the report from the Indian government, the Indian Arm forces is facing serious limitation of modern equipment. The Purchase Orders of modern weapons are in pipeline and will not be delivered in the coming years. The Armed forces briefed the Modi government that we can fight two-front war one by one but if we engage China and Pakistan entered from another front thereafter, then it would be difficult to fight. Therefore, Modi had no way out of it, can not fight wit both countries. Secondly, PLA and Pakistan Armed forces have now become more sophisticated based on indigenously developed technology. The tech update, replacement and new additions are easy for PLA and Pakistan Armed Force as interoperability between two countries is also a nightmare.
Conclusion
The peace may have been done but it seems to be temporary because of the wrong threat perception and all the training and preparation is spinning around the pre-90 era. We wish that Peace may prevail long enough that sanity started regenerated among the nations of South Asia and avoid war in future. Pakistan's will for peace has been known to the world however, Indian Hawkishs in power are still a reality.
Comments
Post a Comment